A drive down Cagayan’s main thoroughfare from the capital of Tuguegarao to Sta. Ana town takes hours, but the trip offers refreshing vistas of rice and corn fields – and a view of the Philippine Sea.
Cagayan’s economy is largely driven by agriculture as well as by fisheries and aquaculture.
While officials have made strides in trimming down poverty and unemployment over the years, some residents in the province of 1.2 million take on multiple jobs to make both ends meet.
In Barangay Minanga Weste of Buguey, a third-class municipality facing Babuyan Channel, Bernard Gabayan and Victorino Raquiño alternate between fishing and farming, depending on the season.
Every day they paddle their banca out to sea together and cast their net at dawn and then in mid-morning, hauling a catch worth P600 ($10) which they split between themselves. But when the waters turn rough from October through January, they hire themselves out at farms for P350 ($6) a day. P300 ($5) can buy two days worth of rice.
Gabayan, 53, also earns P8,000 ($138) a month as a village councilor, while Raquiño, 56, enjoys a P1,000 ($17) allowance as a village watchman, but these are meager amounts for a family of five dealing with inflationary prices of commodities.
“There are times we’re short of cash when we can’t either fish or farm. So we turn to lenders for loans, or we take on construction jobs,’’ Gabayan told the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism (PCIJ).
Some cash-strapped fishermen and farmers are mired in a “cycle of loan borrowings” to put food on the table, send their children to school, and procure farming inputs, according to Fr. Manuel Catral, former parish priest in Aparri town.
“They’re deep in debt. They take out loans even before they harvest,’’ he said.
In the run-up to the May 12 elections, poverty and unemployment are hot-button issues for voters of the province.
Like Gabayan and Raquiño, many remain largely unaware of the significant external interest in their choices. While local politicians, universities, and civil society organizations understand the weight of responsibility awaiting elected officials, residents are more focused on attending to their basic needs.
As China escalates its aggression in the South China Sea, the national leadership, defense establishments in Manila, and numerous countries and security observers closely monitor regional developments.
Cagayan is a frontline province in the South China conflict. For the Philippines, sovereign rights, rule of law, food security, and energy resources are at stake. For the international community, freedom of navigation and regional stability and security are major concerns.
2 EDCA sites in Cagayan
In Manila’s pivot to Washington under the Marcos administration, the province had been picked to host two of the nine sites of the Philippine-US Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) – one in Naval Base Camilo Osias here in Sta. Ana town, and the other in Lal-lo Airport in Lal-lo town – despite some resistance from its governor.
The 2014 deal boosts the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) between the Philippines and its longtime treaty ally, the US, which allows rotational presence of American troops in the country.
EDCA allows the US military to construct facilities within designated Philippine military bases and preposition defense hardware.
A US warship or a fighter jet operating in the South China Sea can now resupply, conduct maintenance, and repair parts at the nearest EDCA site without sailing or flying to Guam or Japan, analysts told PCIJ.
Cagayan Gov. Manuel Mamba, who caused headaches for the national leadership when he opposed the EDCA sites, is completing his third and last consecutive term.
Whoever succeeds Mamba after the local elections – whether it’s his running mate former national police chief Edgar Aglipay, three-term Vice Gov. Melvin Vargas Jr. and Dr. Zarah Lara – has his or her work cut out for him or her.
The local elections are important to ensure that local leaders aligned with the government policy are elected, and that certain localities will continue to host EDCA sites, foreign affairs and security analyst Lucio Pitlo III said.
If the two allies decide to expand the list of EDCA sites, “it’s important to have the buy-in, support, openness and willingness of local governments to host US military troops and equipment,’’ he told PCIJ.
It’s important to have the buy-in, support, openness and willingness of local governments to host US military troops and equipment.
Lucio Pitlo III, foreign affairs and security analyst
Proximity to Taiwan
Cagayan is a 909,594-hectare lowland in the northern tip of Luzon, hemmed in by the Philippine Sea in the east, Cordillera Mountain in the west, Babuyan Channel in the north and Isabela province in the south.
Its proximity to its neighbor – only 570 kilometers south of Kaoshiung, Taiwan – raises concerns about its vulnerability in the event of a Chinese attack. Retired Supreme Court Senior Associate Justice Antonio Carpio has emphasized the risks.
“If China invades Taiwan, they have to seize the Bashi Channel. And if they seize the Bashi Channel, that’s our territorial sea, we will get involved,” Carpio told PCIJ, noting that Cagayan is a front-line province facing the Bashi Channel.
If China invades Taiwan, they have to seize the Bashi Channel. And if they seize the Bashi Channel, that’s our territorial sea, we will get involved.
Retired Supreme Court Senior Associate Justice Antonio Carpio
The world is closely watching this scenario. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has warned that Beijing could move on Taiwan within the next five years.
In April last year, US Typhon launchers – which reportedly can fire missiles that can hit China and Russia from the Philippines – were deployed to President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s home province of Ilocos Norte as part of combat exercises. These were recently moved to another location, also in Luzon.
Despite Chinese protests, Marcos remains resolute.
Let’s make a deal with China—stop claiming our territory, stop harassing our fishermen and let them have a living, stop ramming our boats, stop water-cannoning our people, stop firing lasers at us, and stop your aggressive and coercive behavior, and I’ll return the Typhon missiles.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on Jan. 30, 2025
Chinese investments
Gov. Mamba had opposed the two EDCA sites in Cagayan, claiming that these could jeopardize Chinese investments in the province and put it in the middle of a shooting war between China and Taiwan.
His open-door policy to Chinese investors and students had sparked concerns of Beijing’s “creeping invasion’’ in Tuguegarao, prompting a House inquiry. Mamba maintained that the Chinese posed no threat.
The curious case of dismissed Mayor Alice Guo of Bamban, Tarlac, now exposed as a key player in scam farms and a possible spy for China in the riveting Senate inquiry into the Philippine offshore gaming operators (POGO), had only fanned these concerns.
The Presidential Anti-Organized Crime Commission alleged that some POGO hubs were operating near EDCA sites. Cagayan Economic Zone Authority (CEZA) administrator Katrina Ponce Enrile had confirmed the existence of internet gaming operations in the Cagayan Special Economic Zone and Freeport in Sta. Ana town, but not POGOs.
But in February 2022, the Bureau of Internal Revenue shuttered 18 POGO entities in Cagayan that were licensed by CEZA to engage with interactive gaming, but failed to register with BIR.
Father Ranhillo Aquino, a law professor at the Cagayan State University in Tuguegarao, said the candidates in the May local elections should be scrutinized by voters.
“I’d want them (candidates) to make it clear that none of them supports China. I want them to leave no doubt that none of them supports China,’’ Aquino told PCIJ.
I’d want the candidates to make it clear that none of them supports China. I want them to leave no doubt that none of them supports China.
Father Ranhillo Aquino, law professor at the Cagayan State University in Tuguegarao
He said the next governor should support government policy “to protect the country from the intrusions of the People’s Republic of China and its agents.”
“The hearings in Congress show us this is more than a POGO issue. This has to do with China sending its servants, lackeys, agents into our institutions, including local government units, so that we now have a question: which of our agencies has been compromised?’’ he said.
Distrust in China is high among Filipinos nationwide. A Pulse Asia survey in October 2024 showed that seven out of 10 Filipinos would not support a candidate who is “pro-China at present or in the past.”
“Many Filipinos feel that China’s actions, particularly in the West Philippine Sea, directly challenge our sovereignty and undermine our nation’s interests,” Dindo Manhit, founder and CEO of Stratbase Group that commissioned the survey, said then.
Retired Navy Rear Adm. Rommel Jude Ong, now a professor at the Ateneo School of Government, is concerned that China may attempt to influence local government officials instead.
This concern extends to other provinces hosting EDCA sites in varying degrees.
Election issue
Aglipay, who headed the Philippine National Police from August 2004 to March 2005, told PCIJ that he had pressed Mamba about his pro-China stance, and got a straightforward answer from the governor.
“You know, Manong, we don’t discriminate against any students, any investor. For as long as they comply with the requirements, whoever they are – whether Russian, American, Middle Eastern, Chinese — they’re free to come’,” he quoted Mamba as telling him.
Then in defense of Mamba, Aglipay told PCIJ: “So those who are destroying Cagayan, please stop. The students here, they have documents from immigration. The investors here, they have documents from immigration and foreign affairs.’’
It’s inevitable the tandem will face some questions about Mamba’s stance when they’re out on the hustings.
Security expert and anthropology professor Chester Cabalza, who hails from Cagayan, said: “The presence of EDCA sites will become a factor in the local elections after the exposition of the influx of Chinese students in the province.”
The presence of EDCA sites will become a factor in the local elections after the exposition of the influx of Chinese students in the province.
Chester Cabalza, Security expert and anthropology professor
Father Aquino, who is also the dean of the Graduate School of Law at San Beda University in Manila, said: “It could be raised as an issue but it really depends on the way they (Aglipay’s rivals) will play their cards.’’
“For me, it’s an issue. I can’t speak for all others,’’ added the law professor, a registered voter in Tuguegarao. “After hearing everything that has been said in Congress, you’ll be stupid not to make an issue out of it.”
Senate race, too
It’s not just the local races that matter.
The Senate plays a crucial role in foreign policy, particularly in treaty-making and agreements with foreign governments. The President negotiates treaties but the Senate must ratify them with a two-thirds vote.
In December 2024, the Senate ratified the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) between the Philippines and Japan, which is expected to strengthen the cooperation between the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF).
“As the security environment in the region becomes increasingly severe, the signing of this important security-related agreement with the Philippines, a strategic partner located at a strategic juncture on the sea lanes and sharing fundamental values and principles with Japan, will further promote security and defense cooperation between the two countries and firmly support peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region,” the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan said in a statement in July 2024, when the agreement was signed.
The legislative chamber will continue to weigh in on the country’s alliances with foreign countries.
Canada is seeking to finalize negotiations for a Status of Visiting Forces Agreement (SoVFA) with the Philippines, while New Zealand is preparing to begin talks for a similar agreement.
Beyond treaties, senators, as national figures, make statements and take actions to project and assert the country’s foreign policies.
“Elections are always an opportunity to elect good leaders,” said Pitlo.
“These leaders, regardless of who they are, this is the context they have to work with. And the sooner they understand the nuances, the complexities of the situation, the better for us.’’ — with research assistance from Michael John Lester T. Ruiz/PCIJ.org
