In his first year in office, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has logged 13 overseas trips or an average of one trip a month.
He pressed the flesh from US to China, Asia, Europe, and Australia; addressed the United Nations General Assembly; attended a reception for newly installed King Charles III; and flew to Singapore to watch the Formula One Grand Prix days after a super typhoon devastated parts of the country.
His travels were fewer than his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte’s 18 over the same period. But for some, they’re still too many.
The President’s working and state visits had only one goal, and that is to lure more investors into the country, according to Malacañang officials.
“I’m the new kid on the block. Nobody knows who I am,” the son and namesake of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos quipped when asked about his frequent travels. “Kailangan ko magpakilala (I need to introduce myself).’’
In his second State of the Nation Address on July 24, Marcos said these foreign trips were “economic missions” that yielded an investment value of more than P3 trillion and a potential to generate 175,000 jobs.
“We have embarked on foreign trips to promote the interests of the country, for peace-building and for mutually beneficial purposes,” he said.
Analysts said these trips were attempts at repairing the country’s image on the global stage following Duterte’s tumultuous term and also his family’s legacy decades after his father and namesake was ousted in the 1986 People Power revolution.
13 trips, $62-B investment pledges
The Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism mapped the president’s trips and the investments he brought home during his first year in office.
It’s worth at least $62 billion (about P3.3 trillion) of investment pledges. Marcos brought home after his trip to China in January $22 billion of investment pledges, the biggest from his 13 trips so far. Marcos also brought home after his trip to Japan in February $13 billion of investments pledges which include $600 million in Manila’s infrastructure.
He visited the US twice and brought home a total $5.15 billion in investment pledges. US would also announce, outside Marcos’ trip,an investment worth $82 million for the full implementation of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), a defense agreement signed during the Aquino administration but stalled by Duterte.
Whether or not all these will materialize remains to be seen, however.
Repairing the country’s image and his family’s legacy
Analysts said the President’s trips served to repair the country’s image tarnished by Duterte’s foreign policy – marked by his contempt for the United States and European Union and pivot to China – and poor human rights record, and restore its standing in the international community.
“I don’t think that the current President is actually meeting new people. He’s basically just repairing the [relationships] that need to be repaired,” said Karl Ian Cheng Chua, a visiting professor at Hitotsubashi University in Japan.
“To me, the fascinating thing with BBM… he’s basically just reestablishing the links that PNoy (President Benigno Aquino III) created before,” Chua told PCIJ.
Dindo Manhit, founder of Manila-based think tank Stratbase ADR, said Marcos also wanted to show that he’s different from his father.
“The first year [of trips] was a way of reintroducing himself, as he is, well, ‘the son of a dictator’. He wanted to project a softer image compared to his father,” Manhit told PCIJ.
It wouldn’t be a surprise if the President used his visits to rebrand his family’s image overseas and project himself as a leader who adhered to “rules-based’’ diplomacy, Manhit said.
Riled by criticisms of his war on drugs that killed thousands, Duterte openly insulted world leaders, including then US President Barack Obama, then UN chief Ban Ki-moon, Pope Francis, and even threatened to slap International Criminal Court judges.
In 2017, he threatened to expel EU ambassadors from the country after lawmakers from the region called for restricted trade with the Philippines over human rights issues.
Early in his presidency, Duterte indicated a policy shift away from the United States toward China and Russia. At one point, he called the country’s arbitral tribunal victory against China over its claim on the South China Sea as “just a piece of paper” that he could throw away.
In early 2020, he threatened to terminate the Visiting Forces Agreement that governed the presence of American troops in the country following the US denial of a visa to his drug war enforcer, then police general and now Sen. Ronald “Bato’’ dela Rosa.
But in June 2021, as China continued to encroach into Philippine waters in the South China Sea, he reversed himself and restored the pact.
“We limited our engagement with other countries[during Duterte’s presidency…. We lost partnerships with international organizations,” said Manhit.
“Marcos Jr. could be saying all the right things for them [countries the President has visited], in contrast to the ‘Duterte standard’”, he said.
Strengthened security strategy
Marcos welcomed top-level American officials, including Vice President Kamala Harris, to his official residence early on, and has gone on to restore strong ties with the country’s traditional ally.
The United States responded by committing to provide new hardware — including new aircraft and boats — for the military and the coast guard.
In April, outside of Marcos’ trip, the US announced it was investing $82 million for the full implementation of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), a deal that was signed in 2014 during Aquino’s term, but was sidelined during Duterte’s watch. Under Marcos, the United States has been allowed access to four more Philippine bases in addition to five existing ones.
While Marcos Jr. engaged President Xi early this year, and both even signed an agreement for a “communication mechanism” on matters relating to the West Philippine Sea, Chinese coast guard ships continued to be hostile to Filipino vessels in that area.
The reestablishment of relations with the United States could allow the Philippines to hold effective diplomatic negotiations with China, analysts said.
“There is no indication that Manila will be willing to engage purely in bloc politics or be engulfed by the US-China power competition,” Don Mclain Gill, a Manila-based geopolitical analyst and lecturer from the De La Salle University-Manila, told PCIJ.
“The Marcos Jr. government maintains a clear position of prioritizing the importance of diplomatic negotiations with Beijing for lasting peace. However, the right conditions — an enhanced defense network — must be created for Manila to negotiate more effectively with China amid the great power asymmetry,” he added.
China is ‘top investor’?
China tops the list with the highest pledge of $22 billion. Three months after a three-day state visit to China in January this year, where Marcos and Xi signed bilateral agreements, Manila began exporting durian to Beijing.
Gill said China’s announcement of investments in the country must be taken with a “grain of salt”.
“While China is quite known for forging vast economic agreements and pledges, it is equally notorious in failing to follow through in terms of operationalizing these pledges in a sustainable, timely, transparent, and effective manner,” he said.
According to data from Lowy Institute, China committed $6.2 billion worth of financial development assistance to the Philippines from 2015 to 2021, but only $262 million was realized.
Infrastructure and ‘green’ investments
Japan and the United States, the country’s largest trading partners, offered concrete deals.
During Marcos’ working visit to Japan in February, Malacañang announced that Japan-based Mitsui & Co. and Philippine-based conglomerate Metro Pacific & Investments Corp. would invest $600 million in Manila’s infrastructure. Mitsui had offered to buy a stake in Metro Pacific.
As the climate crisis continues to disrupt economies, it’s become imperative, too, for countries to start investing in just energy transition.
For example, Japan, the United States, and Indonesia had also expressed interest in investing in the country’s renewable energy sector.
The three are some of the countries that depend most on coal for their power needs, but have all started to invest heavily in the development of the technology and raw materials needed for renewable energy.
The United States committed to invest $5 million in the development of the Philippines’ mineral production and expansion of downstream mineral industries, for example. Indonesia and Japan, are likewise part of the global supply chain for the production of electric vehicles, now in high demand as countries move to lower their carbon footprint.
The Philippines could certainly be a part of this supply chain with its rich mineral resources. And PCIJ had previously reported how mining companies have destroyed the biodiversity of Palawan in a bid to dig for more profit, as demands for nickel from the renewable energy sector accelerate globally.
More trips ahead?
The challenge now for the Philippines is to prove to the world that it is a good place for investment, analysts said.
In January, the President said he wanted to “streamline” the bureaucracy through digitalization. He downplayed concerns about transparency and accountability in government, however.
“Those who are actually contemplating putting good money into the Philippines have other issues and that is not – accountability and transparency is not an issue,” Marcos said.
This may be true for Japan, said Chua, a long-time scholar specializing in Philippine-Japanese relations. He said Japan has a history of maintaining relations with countries that have a “history of corruption” as long as the government is “stable enough.”
“Japan would always be the old, reliable friend,” Chua said. “The important thing here is, they see the government is still stable enough that is not painful for them [to continue doing business].”
Analysts said they expect Marcos to embark on more international trips to ensure that investment pledges from other countries come through. Malacañang said Marcos would have fewer trips this year.
“You would want to have more trips that are targeted. Where can we really get those investments?”, Manhit said. END
Illustration by Luigi Almuena
This report was updated to include the president’s statement about his travels during his second State of the Nation Address on July 24, 2023.