THE Congressional canvass that declared Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to have won the presidency in 2004 showed her to have beaten Fernando Poe Jr. by 1,123,576 votes. A study published in Kasarinlan, a journal of UP’s Third World Studies Center, says this could not be so. The paper, written by new media pioneer Roberto Verzola, asserts that Arroyo did not win the May elections by 1.1 million votes. It was a very close contest, Verzola says, with "the most probable results" ranging from a GMA win of around 156,000 votes or less, to an FPJ win of around 84,000 votes or less.

Verzola analyzed both the Namfrel tally—that used election returns (ERs)—and the parallel official count by Congress of provincial Certificates of Canvass (COCs). He dissected not only the numbers but how the tally itself progressed.

Verzola first made his findings public just over a month after the elections, in a shorter piece published June 20 last year in the Inquirer.

View Verzola’s full report here.

15 Responses to ‘The true results of the 2004 presidential elections’



July 2nd, 2005 at 4:24 pm

hello pcij,
great link. at the height of the elections. the king of the blogs was a fellow called deanjorgebocobo. he appears to be a mathematical and statistical wiz not to mention an astute political analyst as well. his blog has since gone dark. but his archived blogs are still alive. one of the most intriguing is a report on a statistical anomaly in Cebu, the source of GMA’s decisive final margin. here is the link

Unfortunately, whereas fraud is suggested by statistics. He does not have any on-the-ground reports.

And the opposition cannot seem to provide any better analysis or report to back dean bocobo up.

The truth is out there. It just needs a CSI type of guy or a team to piece it all together.

The palace is now spinning that they won anyway. To debunk their assertion, Cebu holds the key not Mindanao.



July 2nd, 2005 at 4:53 pm

just came from the link provided by ichirosan.

very interesting indeed, read up on the other articles too. Try reading from the date of the elections onwards. it’s really an eye opener.

thanks for the link!


Over a Cup of 2T » Blog Archive » True results of the 2004 elections

July 2nd, 2005 at 5:02 pm

[…] PCIJ tells us the “True results of the 2004 presidential elections”. […]


jay cynikho

July 2nd, 2005 at 5:40 pm


try to read about IGCRP, the germinal formula to make us move on without blood shed.



July 2nd, 2005 at 10:44 pm

ako dudang-duda na ko dyan sa namfrel. sila dapat ang nakakita ng mga irregularidad. ano kaya ang reaction nila dito.



July 3rd, 2005 at 12:34 am

namfrel has really destroyed itself. i’m sure they have many
idealistic volunteers but if they knew what their leadership has done.
would they stand for it? it is too bad. namfrel used to represent
all the best in the pinoy.

if you read the report, it is very clear namfrel participated in a conspiracy to hoodwink the public. the moment they became partisan.
their raison det’re is finished.

bill luz is everywhere on tv trying to put on the old halo. talking morality
and so on. but he is really talking from the two sides of his mouth.



July 3rd, 2005 at 12:54 am



strdoc » Blog Archive » True results of the 2004 elections

July 3rd, 2005 at 1:20 pm

[…] PCIJ posted it here and an interesting comment by ichirosan pointing to Dean Jorge Bocobo’s Gloria’s 10 to 1 Landslide in Cebu. […]



July 5th, 2005 at 3:42 pm

Dean Bacobo’s analysis of Cebu turnout is indeed a revelation on how they manipulated the results of elections not only in Mindanao but even in Cebu and in other parts of the country where there is a willing GMA partnet in crime like Garcillano who are in charge of dagdag bawas.

The fact is they have already perfected this dagdag bawas that even the Namfrel guys knows when to stop their job to give way for this dagdag bawas people to maneuver the elections.

Namfrel by an act of omission have been a party to this cheating and they should likewise be made accountable to the people.

It is indeed frustrating that because of ther fear of FPJ presidency,Namfrel allowed itself to be a party in this large scale cheating unprecedented in our electoral history.

With calls for GMA to resign, for sure the Makati elites will prefer to be with GMA “the cheater” than to accept Noli De Castro as GMA’s successor.


Sandro T. Rafael Documentation Project :: True results of the 2004 elections : : July : : 2005

July 12th, 2005 at 8:48 pm

[…] PCIJ posted it here and an interesting comment by ichirosan pointing to Dean Jorge Bocobo’s Gloria’s 10 to 1 Landslide in Cebu. […]


INSIDE PCIJ: Stories behind our stories » “Invisible hand” in Namfrel manipulated results of its presidential tally — Verzola

September 4th, 2005 at 9:14 pm

[…] In an earlier paper, Verzola claimed that Arroyo did not win the May elections by 1.1 million votes as it was a very close contest. Analyzing both the Namfrel tally that used election returns (ERs) and the parallel official count by Congress of provincial Certificates of Canvass (COCs), he concluded that the "most probable results" ranged from an Arroyo win of around 156,000 votes or less, to an FPJ win of around 84,000 votes or less. […]


INSIDE PCIJ: Stories behind our stories » Punishing the cheats, not election automation, is real solution — local IT pioneer

June 9th, 2006 at 11:05 pm

[…] Verzola has recently spearheaded the forming of the group Halalang Marangal (or the Network of Citizens for Honest Elections and Truthful Statistics). He says they intend to do a citizens’ audit of the elections in 2007 because the elections watchdog National Citizens’ Movement for Free Elections (Namfrel) cannot be relied upon anymore to make an honest tally. (See also Verzola’s studies on the extent of cheating in the 2004 presidential elections here and here.) […]


INSIDE PCIJ: Stories behind our stories » Verzola: Namfrel part of poll fraud coverup; Namfrel: Go after Comelec, not us

June 19th, 2006 at 5:49 pm

[…] In September last year, Verzola also released an update to his earlier paper after he obtained from Namfrel a regional breakdown of precincts it tallied in its Report No. 81, and a regional and provincial breakdown of precincts it tallied in its terminal report, Report No. 83. […]



September 7th, 2006 at 12:35 pm

Here’s Dean jorge bocobo’s article using wayback machine.

Gloria’s 10 to 1 Landslide in Cebu

About two weeks ago, Atty. Al Agra of the administration K4 coalition was guesting on the ABSCBN news channel. He revealed that a tally of their 2nd copy of the official Certificates of Canvass of the 2004 May 10 presidential elections would show that Gloria Macapagal Arroyo polled 12,859,806 votes beating FPJ’s 11,740,989 by a healthy margin of about 1.1 million votes. I took a picture of the laptop screenshot that was televised showing these historic results.

Before the joint congressional canvass started, most people believed it was political fait accompli–GMA and Noli de Castro have won victory for the K4 coalition, which also got seven of the 12 senatorial seats up for grabs.

But something very intriguing has come to light. During yesterday’s session on the CoCs for Cebu province, it was noted that the apparent voter turnout was an astounding 92% — far above the average of 75-80% in most other parts of the country. On top of that, Election DAy was a rainy, stormy day with an early season typhoon dampening most activities. And on top of that, dig this:::90% of the 92% of the 2,018,719 are said to have voted for GMA. (Even more amazing, in the Maguindanao town where the mother of Rep. Digs Dilangalen resides, with his extended clan, including the mayor who is his first cousin, again dig this::::FPJ 0 votes; GMA 17,000+ votes! But Maguindanao is a different story…]

According to the tv newscast, Sen. Ed Angara believes that if the Election Returns for JUST CEBU were to be opened and compared with the Certificates of Canvass, the TRUE winner of the elections would be established and ought to be proclaimed.

I think the Opposition may bet the barn on the CoCs of Cebu and draw a line in the sand to force the Majority to demonstrate at least ONE credible CoC backed up by the uncontroverted Election Returns. It would probably take less than 24 hours to do so.

I believe that it is in the interest of the entire Filipino nation that the Majority undertake such a demonstration in order to win credibility for their side. Likewise, the Oppostion should be put to the test, given their opportunity to compare the ElectionReturns with the CoC in JUST ONE place:::Cebu.

If the Election Returns of Cebu substantially match the results reflected in the Certificates of Canvas, then that would blow up the Opposition charges of a massive cheating operation conducted during the municipal and provincial canvass phases of the vote count.

If on the the other hand, the ten-to-one landslide of Gloria Macapagal Arrooyo reflected in the subject Certificate of Canvass for Cebu is proven to be false, then that would prove there is merit to such a comparison of Election Returns and Certificate of Canvass. Only then should the Congress and Nation countenance a perhaps unprecedented but morally imperative checking of most of the CoC against their respective Election Returns.

I think both sides have come to the critical impasse in the post election scenario. The Opposition knows it is outnumbered both in the Committee and in the Joint Session of the Congress. But this weekend, AM radio paid ads obviously deployed by the Opposition were already striking a chord with the public asking:::


It is certainly in their interest to do so because there is a very unstable situation right now with respect to public opinion. Opening the election returns of Cebu province and unequivocally demonstrating substantial agreement with the controverted Provincial Certificate of Canvass for Cebu would be the surest way to end this most painful and embarrassing thrombosis in the Philippine electoral process.

It would demonstrate that as asseverated by no less than the Roman Catholic Church hierarchy, the last elections were reasonably free of violence and fraud, and that there was no widespread cheating on the part of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.

It would belie all those crazy accusations that several million voters were disenfranchised because of the chaos that reigns in the Commission on Elections, whose records are not wrong, they are nonexistent. It is a well-known scandal that the Comelec did not even provide the required computerized voters lists at all this year.

Surely, by doing a full, open and credible verification of JUST ONE Certificate of Canvass against its accompanying Election, that of the province of Cebu with is 2 million voters, 1.8 million of whom are claimed to have given President GMA a 10 to 1 landslaide over Fernando Poe Jr. — surely this would cause the opposition to shut up.



September 7th, 2006 at 5:45 pm

emphasis mine:

Leakage tells of graft in gov’t
Last updated 01:13am (Mla time) 09/07/2006

Published on Page A12 of the September 7, 2006 issue of the Philippine Daily Inquirer

The cheating in the nurses’ examination can be traced in part to the culture of corruption that seems to characterize the administration of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

We, of course, know of the many cases of corruption that have taken place during the Arroyo administration: the P728-million fertilizer scandal, the legally flawed purchase of vote-counting machines worth P1 billion and the mysterious Jose Pidal account, to name a few.

Ms Arroyo’s refusal to allow her Cabinet officials and military officers to attend legislative investigations only shows that she is covering up irregularities committed by her administration. The hasty junking by the House of Representatives of the impeachment cases against Ms Arroyo, without looking into the substance of the complaints, was another cover-up.

Nothing should be spared to identify those who cheated in the June 2006 nursing board examination and those who helped them cheat. Those who cheated should be punished. Those who did not should be allowed to take their oaths. But to allow cheaters in the examinations to go scot-free would be to destroy the nursing profession, just as we are allowing the breakdown of our nation by allowing election cheaters to continue holding office.

RHEA BAYONA, 9005-32, 29th Street, Villamor Air Base, Pasay City

if the cheating nurses say “we are sorry,” then they should get off scot-free. it worked for GMA, didn’t it? being the highest official of the land, whatever laws apply to her apply to us ordinary citizens as well, correct?

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