IN TRUTH, when Estrada assumed the presidency on June 30, 1998, political analysts reckoned that there would be only three major groups that would be fighting it out in the Malacañang snakepit. One of these had the Zamoras at the helm. Another was identified with Robert Aventajado, a longtime Estrada friend and one of the pillars of JEEP, an Estrada political organization that operated parallel to the official Laban ng Mamamayang Masang Pilipino (LAMMP) but focused on the grassroots. The third bloc was headed by former Senate President Edgardo Angara, Estrada’s running mate, and the head of the Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino (Laban), which had provided the Estrada campaign the national political network it had needed.

A year and a half later, these three blocs have lost some of their considerable clout and must now compete with the influence wielded by the President’s nocturnal companions, the gritty dealmaking by Estrada’s second “wife” Guia Gomez, and also the emerging power of Leonora de Jesus, chief of the Presidential Management Staff (PMS).

Certainly, Malacañang observers say that Aventajado, who was named presidential adviser on economic affairs and chair of the Presidential Committee on Flagship Projects, no longer wields the same kind of influence he did during Estrada’s presidential campaign. This could be because he turned down a position that would have put him in Malacañang, where he could be in close proximity to his President-buddy. Fearing the inevitable Palace intrigues, the former racecar driver and San Juan politico opted to dabble in Mindanao issues and take charge of infrastructure projects instead.

That didn’t spare him from the intrigues, however. Aventajado has ended up hounded by unsavory reports involving infrastructure projects under his committee, and Palace insiders say he has become distant from the president, an observation that the official denies. As he recently told a newspaper, “The important thing is that if I call him, he will talk to me, and if I go to Malacañang, he will receive me.”

Angara, meanwhile, as secretary of agriculture, is widely acknowledged to be in the margins of power. Although he did get the agriculture post, a position promised him by Estrada, he wields no clout beyond the Elliptical Road in Quezon City, where the Department of Agriculture (DA) is situated.

Proof of Angara’s diminished clout was the President’s executive order transferring four major DA agencies to the Office of the Presidential Adviser on Food Security, which was created for William Dar, a little-known scientist whom Angara had chosen to warm his seat at the DA while he waited out the expiration of the one-year ban on holding government positions for those who lost in the elections. But when Dar’s time was up, he tried to hold on to the position by making governors petition for his retention. When that failed, he made the President sign the executive order. This attempted dismemberment of the DA put the country’s food program at risk and was thwarted only with Dar’s appointment to the Food and Agriculture Organization in Rome.

Pitting Dar against Angara is seen by many as part of moves to marginalize Angara, who is believed to be nurturing presidential ambitions in 2004. In a way, these have succeeded, as Angara is no longer seen as having clout beyond the DA. Early on, he had even lost his man at the Department of Health (DOH), Dr. Felipe Estrella, whom he had endorsed as secretary. Estrella quit all too soon after becoming the subject of intrigues within the department, but not before saying he was simply too old and too tired to put up with such nonsense.

ENTER THE "Dragon Lady." The formidable de Jesus has been PMS chief since the Aquino administration. But while she acquired a reputation as someone to reckon with during the Ramos presidency, any clout that she had was expected to diminish, if not disappear, once Estrada and his minions came in. Instead, the opposite seems to have happened, in large part because de Jesus is competent and more knowledgeable about how the Office of the President is supposed to work than most anyone else among the Palace lightweights.

De Jesus had been drawn into the Estrada camp by the man she lives with, Ramon Abad, who was Estrada’s deputy campaign manager. She soon proved invaluable to the new administration, becoming the instant guide to newcomers who could barely find their way through the maze that is the Malacañang bureaucracy.

That, however, didn’t endear her to Estrada’s longtime political associates who suddenly saw a new face as doorkeeper to the center of power. Palace insiders say that the reason why two agencies under the PMS last year were transferred to the Office of the Executive Secretary was because of growing wariness about her clout. The President also removed the Southern Philippines Development Authority, which oversees development projects in Mindanao, from de Jesus’s plate and onto Aventajado’s.

But de Jesus, a survivor of numerous power struggles, has shown savvy in choosing her allies. She maintains a close friendship with Senator Tessie Aquino-Oreta, whom the President openly calls “my favorite senator.” Trade Secretary Jose T. Pardo, who is said to be Estrada’s most trusted Cabinet member, is also sympathetic to de Jesus.

De Jesus also has on her side lawyer Crispin “Boying” Remulla, whom Estrada trusts. Now chief of the PMS’s legal section, Boying is a son of former Cavite Governor Juanito Remulla, a staunch Estrada ally. In addition, the younger Remulla had lawyered for Jose Victor “JV” Ejercito, believed to be the President’s favorite son. When the President removed from the Office of the Executive Secretary the power to review government contracts worth P50 million or more, it fell on the lap of the PMS section headed by Remulla.

Aside from the Zamora brothers—especially Ronnie, who has seen his political cache inside the Palace dwindle in the wake of de Jesus’s rise—those who wish the “Dragon Lady” political ill are said to include the “Greenhills group” composed of the President’s sisters, Pilarica, Marita, and Pat, brother Paulino and brother-in-law Raul de Guzman. Of late, de Jesus has managed to antagonize even the likes of neutral Press Secretary Rod Reyes, who was unceremoniously bumped off the presidential plane during a recent official trip to Cebu, in favor of Presidential Spokesman Jerry Barican, the PMS chief’s newest Malacañang confederate.

But all of de Jesus’s political friends and foes are no match in terms of clout to her most important ally, Guia Gomez, the mother of JV Ejercito and the most politically astute of the President’s women companions. When Estrada was mayor of San Juan, Gomez had acted as his first lady and was known to be active in the town’s politics. It is thus not surprising that Gomez is de Jesus’s main connection to many of those who make up the President’s Other Cabinet, which could be said to be the wild card in the Palace power deck.