7 DECEMBER 2006

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(This essay was solicited by i Report, the online magazine of the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism, for its current series on political predictions. The views expressed in the essays included in this series do not necessarily reflect those of the PCIJ or any of its staff members.)

PERSPECTIVES
The 2010 Vision

by VICENTE ROMANO III

UNDER ORDINARY times, 2010 is the year we elect a successor to Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. But the Garci scandal changed all that. Since then — or because of it — the Arroyo administration quickly abandoned its reform agenda in favor of short-term survival.

At the start, all Arroyo really wanted was to finish her term up to 2010, at whatever cost. But along the way, in the course of the usual wheeling and dealing with allies, adversaries, and power blocks, she discovered the enormous power of her office, and how it can be used to quell any attempt to unseat her.

Arroyo employed a whole arsenal of tricks to survive. But there are two that stand out:

1) Divide and rule. While surveys consistently showed that a good majority believed Arroyo cheated, there was no consensus on what to do about it. Every community — business, church, nongovernmental organizations, military, and even family — was divided on the course of action to take.

Some analysts attribute this to people-power fatigue: a general sense that another extra-constitutional change of regime would not lead to better governance, but simply to a change of faces — mostly, recycled politicians. Worse, the prospect of a Noli de Castro presidency scared both the middle class and the business community.

Arroyo did not even have to prove her innocence. All she needed to do was to fuel the Noli scare and nurture enough allies and followers within every community to keep them fragmented. In the process, she destroyed more institutions than former President Ferdinand Marcos did.

2) Rule by law. Arroyo and her allies would often invoke rule of law even while taking the narrowest interpretation that favors them. The moro-moro of Congress in determining sufficiency in form and substance of the impeachment complaint says it all. What it was actually doing was rule by law — perverting both the letter and intent of the law to suit its own end.

Meanwhile, the executive branch simply threw at us its own creative redefinition of existing laws — CPR (Calibrated Preemptive Response), Executive Order 464, and Presidential Proclamation 1017. It argued that these were valid until rebuffed by the courts. The Supreme Court eventually declared CPR unconstitutional, and E.O. 464 and P.P. 1017 partly unconstitutional; but the damage to our civil liberties had been done.

How can the administration get away with such blatant and willful distortion of the law?

The answer is quite simple: lack of indignation from a citizenry that has grown cynical of government. Even veterans of the two Edsa revolutions are skeptical that another people-power revolt would do the country any good, or that it is even possible.

Many people have simply given up on this country and are too busy securing a nursing degree and a work visa. They could not care less who the president is or will be, or what he or she does or will do — good or bad.

There are many factors contributing to this malaise of national apathy, but it will require another essay to analyze them. Suffice it to say that an acquiescent citizenry invites more repressive and punitive measures from a regime with dictatorial bent. No wonder that it has added in its arsenal of survival tools the intimidation and terrorizing of its critics. The unabated killings of journalists and militant leaders under the Arroyo watch in such short a time puts to shame the Marcos track record. And whoever is behind these seems to have begun to believe that he or she can get away with murder.

STILL, SURVEYS show that anti-Arroyo sentiments remain high. This might just translate into an opposition-dominated Congress after the May elections, with enough numbers to impeach her. Thus, the rush to shift to a parliamentary form of government. Because even though Arroyo has survived two impeachment attempts, there's a very real threat that she might not survive a third one in 2007.

Under the guise of pushing for much needed structural reforms, the real motivation is to preempt any future impeachment attempts by: a) not holding local elections to retain the present pro-Arroyo configuration of Congress; b) altering the structure of the legislature; and c) changing the rules on impeachment.

While at it, the administration's supporters realized they might as well lift term limits and pave the way for Arroyo to stay on beyond 2010. If Arroyo succeeds in completing her term until 2010 in spite of the lack of true mandate from the people, she will definitely find a way to perpetuate herself in power beyond 2010.

The bogus People's Initiative is dead, thanks to the ruling with finality by the Supreme Court. The indecent haste and brazenness of the whole exercise shows the extent this administration will go through to advance its agenda. Already, its supporters have unashamedly declared that they will make one final push to alter the constitution through an even more obscene process: Con-Ass, or a Constituent Assembly.

But time is running out on them. And it will soon come to a head in the May 2007 elections. Arroyo will pull out all the stops to prevent the opposition from securing enough seats in Congress to impeach her. Garci-like operations with Bolante-type of funding similar, if not bigger, in magnitude to the 2004 elections will be the game plan.

Civil society has to do no less. First, it must fight tooth and nail against Con-Ass. Second, it must actively participate in the May 2007 elections — campaigning for or against candidates to win enough opposition seats in Congress, as well as guarding the ballot to ensure every vote is counted correctly.

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