July 3, 2007 · Posted in: 2007 Elections
Why you should doubt the Maguindanao election results – 2
(UPDATED) If only for the statistically improbable zero votes received by 18 senatorial candidates, including those from the opposition who enjoy high levels of public awareness like Panfilo Lacson, Benigno Aquino III and even Alan Peter Cayetano, Maguindanao’s election results ought to be held with much suspicion.
Compared to the poll results from the rest of the provinces in the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM), the outcome from the province is an anomaly. Why? Because even senatorial race last-placers Ruben Enciso, Eduardo Orpilla, Victor Wood, and Felix Cantal — virtual unknowns except for Wood — all garnered votes in Lanao del Sur, Shariff Kabunsuan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, and Basilan.
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VOTES OBTAINED BY SENATORIAL RACE TAILENDERS IN ARMM
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CANDIDATE
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LANAO DEL SUR
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SHARIFF KABUNSUAN
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SULU
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TAWI-TAWI
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BASILAN
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CANTAL, Felix
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2,156
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1,073
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777
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859
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514
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ENCISO, Ruben
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2,960
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1,023
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1,057
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921
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1,797
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ORPILLA, Eduardo
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5,802
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1,580
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1,150
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851
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871
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WOOD, Victor
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3,926
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1,967
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2,018
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2,709
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1,494
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And considering how the rest of Muslim Mindanao voted, Bukidnon Rep. Juan Miguel Zubiri’s emergence as top vote-getter in the Maguindanao polls is also suspect — in the same way that Luis “Chavit” Singson’s 194,242 votes (second to Zubiri’s) are, the former Ilocos Sur governor placing nowhere near the Top 12 in the canvassed results of the five other ARMM provinces.
Though he may be a genuine son of Mindanao, Zubiri wasn’t the top choice of his Muslim brothers and sisters outside of Maguindanao. As voting results clearly showed, it was Team Unity’s Jamalul Kiram who consistently took the top spot, losing out only to Genuine Opposition’s Loren Legarda in Basilan by 94 votes, and to fellow TU candidate Edgardo Angara in Shariff Kabunsuan. Kiram came in third behind Legarda.
Zubiri only placed fourth in Lanao del Sur, fifth in Shariff Kabunsuan, sixth in Sulu, eighth in Basilan, and 11th in Tawi-Tawi. His TU teammate, actor Cesar Montano, even managed to finish better than the three-term Bukidnon congressman in the latter three ARMM provinces, landing a respectable third in Basilan and Sulu, and fourth in Tawi-Tawi.
Below are tables comparing Zubiri’s votes with those of the top five senatorial candidates in the five ARMM provinces.
- Lanao del Sur
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VOTE COMPARISON
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CANDIDATE
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VOTES OBTAINED
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RANK
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KIRAM, Jamalul
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158,047
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1
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LEGARDA, Loren
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131,309
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2
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PIMENTEL, Aquilino III
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115,899
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3
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ZUBIRI, Juan Miguel
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109,389
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4
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ANGARA, Edgardo
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105,900
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5
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- Shariff Kabunsuan
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VOTE COMPARISON
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CANDIDATE
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VOTES OBTAINED
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RANK
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ANGARA, Edgardo
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114,054
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1
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KIRAM, Jamalul
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107,921
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2
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LEGARDA, Loren
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106,446
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3
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RECTO, Ralph
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102,658
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4
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ZUBIRI, Juan Miguel
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100,280
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5
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- Sulu
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VOTE COMPARISON
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CANDIDATE
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VOTES OBTAINED
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RANK
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KIRAM, Jamalul
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86,247
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1
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LEGARDA, Loren
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64,354
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2
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MONTANO, Cesar
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62,852
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3
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PICHAY, Prospero, Jr.
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57,281
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4
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ANGARA, Edgardo
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51,910
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5
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ZUBIRI, Juan Miguel
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48,465
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6
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- Tawi-Tawi
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VOTE COMPARISON
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CANDIDATE
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VOTES OBTAINED
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RANK
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KIRAM, Jamalul
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44,932
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1
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LEGARDA, Loren
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38,678
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2
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ESCUDERO, Francis Joseph
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37,744
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3
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MONTANO, Cesar
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33,121
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4
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ANGARA, Edgardo
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29,751
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5
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ZUBIRI, Juan Miguel
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19,705
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11
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- Basilan
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VOTE COMPARISON
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CANDIDATE
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VOTES OBTAINED
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RANK
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LEGARDA, Loren
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49,146
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1
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KIRAM, Jamalul
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49,052
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2
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MONTANO, Cesar
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47,131
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3
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SOTTO, Vicente III
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45,896
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4
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ANGARA, Edgardo
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44,290
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5
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ZUBIRI, Juan Miguel
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37,336
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8
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7 Responses to Why you should doubt the Maguindanao election results – 2
jlagman17
July 4th, 2007 at 1:42 pm
Why you should never doubt the Maguindanao election results?
Logic – The Comelec and local officials in Maguindanao are credible, trustworthy, honest, peaceful and most of all loyal to the government.
Statistics – As usual, there is almost 100% turn-out. Just like in 2004 when FPJ received a big Zero vote.
Common sense – The great Maguindanao election supervisor had asked local election officers to turn over all election documents to him on May 28, a day before he said the same documents got lost. No more evidence.
Probability – All the witnesses are gone probably dead.
Survey – All Opposition candidates except for Pimentel are all virtual unknowns in Maguindanao. They got zero vote because their election watchers and lawyers did not even vote for them.
Law of nature – What goes up may not go down. What goes around sometimes never comes around.
ChoIo
July 5th, 2007 at 12:59 am
Try to get the percentage of votes received by the topnotchers in each provinces or COCs against the registered voters (due to incomplete data for number of voters who actually voted). Treat the Overseas Absentee as 1-COC since generally the turn-outs are very low. Compare the percentages and you will see that Zubiri’s topping in Maguindanao and Local Absentee votes are highly questionable.
The national average is only about 44%.
Legarda who topped 40-COCs has the highest in La Union and Ilocos Norte with about 59%.
Escudero who topped in 29-COCs has the highest in Bataan with 58%. He also topped in his home province of Sorsogon with 57%.
The highest percentage that all the topnotchers got excluding Maguindanao and the Local Absentee is 60% by Singson in Ilocos Sur his home province.
Zubiri topped in his home province of Bukidnon with 55% only. How he topped in Maguindanao with about 95% and Local Absentee with 72% of the registered voters are highly doubtful and therefore unbelievable.
INSIDE PCIJ » Why you should doubt the Maguindanao election results - 4
July 12th, 2007 at 7:17 pm
[...] Aside from the statistically improbable votes, anomalous voting pattern, and the election results from the town of Pagalungan, Verzola says that the Maguindanao CoC contains some “statistically impossible” numbers when it comes to the ballot fill-up rate. [...]
i-site’s 2007 Election Files » Why you should doubt the Maguindanao election results - 4
July 17th, 2007 at 9:32 am
[...] Aside from the statistically improbable votes, anomalous voting pattern, and the election results from the town of Pagalungan, Verzola says that the Maguindanao CoC contains some “statistically impossible” numbers when it comes to the ballot fill-up rate. [...]
INSIDE PCIJ » Halal: Investigate electoral fraud in Maguindanao
July 24th, 2007 at 11:13 pm
[...] 5. Compared to 2004, vote discrepancies in 2007 were lower in 25 provinces/cities including some ARMM provinces, but higher in 73 provinces/cities. [...]
i-site’s 2007 Election Files » Halal: Investigate electoral fraud in Maguindanao
July 31st, 2007 at 11:49 am
[...] Compared to 2004, vote discrepancies in 2007 were lower in 25 provinces/cities including some ARMM provinces, but higher in 73 provinces/cities. [...]
Mass murder in Maguindanao : Manuel L. Quezon III: The Daily Dose
November 25th, 2009 at 5:19 pm
[...] out Placeholder on the senatorial results for Maguindanao in 2007. There’s Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4 and Part 5 of PCIJ’s “Why you should doubt the Maguindanao electoral [...]